With a little over a week before the trade deadline, hot stove rumors are flying. Many of them center around the New York Yankees, who have consistently made deals prior to the deadline. Many of these rumors center around the Yankees acquiring one of the two top players on the trading block, Blue Jay's ace Roy Halladay and A's outfielder Matt Holliday. While these two players would certainly make the Yankees a more potent team, I am going to analyze what a trade would mean in terms of each player's: Talent, Necessity, Value, and Price.
Roy Hallady
Talent
Generally considered the biggest name on the trading block, there is no doubting Roy Halladay's talent. So far this year he's 11-3 with a 2.73 ERA and 113 K's in 132 innings. He shows great control, only walking 17 batters this year, or one batter for approximately every 8 innings pitched. He's shown consistency too, pitching 200+ innings over the last three years, and a cumulative ERA of 3.53. He would easily be the ace of the Yankees rotation. However, were Halladay to join the Yankees, don't expect him to maintain that 2.73 ERA at hitter-friendly Yankees Stadium. For a reference point, in 2008 7.95 runs a game were scored at the Blue Jays' home stadium, Rogers Center, while this year 10.56 runs a game are scored at Yankees Stadium. Still, Roy's just as talented no matter in which stadium he's pitching, but don't expect the same gaudy numbers if Halladay is in pinstripes.
Grade: A-
Necessity
The Yankees pitching staff could definetely use some help, but what pitching staff couldn't. The Yankees team ERA is a meager 4.38, which ranks tenth out of the fourteen American league teams. However, as mentioned before the Yankees' staff is at a disadvantage due to the hitter-friendly home park. Their true strength is therefore difficult to measure, but the 4.32 road ERA does little to instill faith in the staff. The first two spots in the Yankees rotation are secure and in great hands, with CC Sabathia (3.66 ERA this year) and AJ Burentt (3.81 ERA) pitching excellent thus far. It's the final three spots that are concerning. The third spot is secured by Joba, who by and large has been very lucky this season. His ERA is 4.05, very decent for the #3 man. However, he has command issues, walking 45 batters in just 95.2 innings, or one walk for every 6.37 batters that come to the plate. In addition, opponents are hitting .272 against him, a pretty high total for a guy with a 4.05 ERA. Andy Pettitte is having problems this year, posting a 4.62 ERA. However, the seasons of Pettitte, and to a lesser extent Joba, do have a silver lining, as each is pitching extremely well on the road (Pettitte's road ERA is 3.69 while Joba's is 3.26), indicating many of their "issues" may arise from a hitter-friendly home park. A number of pitchers have competed for the last spot, though none have been successful. Wang lost the spot after going on the 15-day DL... and after posting a 9.64 ERA. Prized prospect Phil Hughes pitched poorly as well, posting a 5.45 ERA in his seven starts. Current #5 man Sirgio Mirte is certainly a short-term solution, as he had a 4.65 ERA last year in just 149 innings pitched and ERA's of 5.30+ the previous two seasons. Were the Yankees to acquire Halladay, the rotation would look like this
1- Halladay (2.78 ERA)
2- Sabathia (3.66 ERA)
3- Burnett (3.81 ERA)
4- Joba (4.05 ERA)
5- Pettitte (4.62 ERA)
Certainly Roy betters the staff, but his services are not an absolute necessity on a staff that has a solid top 3 and on a team that currently tops the AL East and has won 6 in a row. However, Roy's necessity is increaded due to the fact that the Yankees top rival for both the AL East and the AL Pennant, the Red Sox, also have a solid top 3 (Wakefield, Beckett, Lester) and an uncertain final two spots being rotated between Smoltz, Penny, and now Buchholtz. Were the Yankees to face the Sox for the AL pennant, the Bombers would have a huge advantage in game 4, with Joba likely squaring off against either Smoltz or Penny, both carrying an ERA greater than 5 this season.
Grade: B
Value:
Halladay is a valuable commodity not only because of his talent and numbers, but also because he is under contract for next season as well. In addition, he has expressed desire to sign a long-term contract if traded. There is no guarantee the Yankees would sign him long-term, especially after spending a few hundred million dollars on free agents last season, but it would certainly give them the upper hand if they were able to. He is scheduled to earn 14.25 million this year and 15.75 million next year, which is a lot of money, but certainly still at least 3 million less than what he will earn per year when he signs a new contract. He has increased value because he is consistently healthy; he last missed significant time in 2005 when Kevin Mench broke his leg with a line drive- a freak accident more than an indicator of poor health.
Grade: B+
Price:
Here's where Roy Halladay begins to look much less attractive. Blue Jays GM Jp Ricciardi has proven he is just as much a shark as the man he left in Oakland, the infamous Billy Beane. He is under no pressure to trade Roy, and he realizes if he hangs onto him he will get a season and a half out of a great pitcher and two first round draft picks as compensation when Roy inevitably signs with another team. The Jays are far from a lost cause, actually sitting atop the AL East for the first month and a half of the season. They have a solid group of young guys (Hill, Scuttaro, etc.), and it's possible they could contend for a playoff spot next year, though unlikely in the strong AL East. So if Ricciardi decides to trade Halladay, he will be looking for a deal better than the alternative: two first round draft picks and a year and a half of an excellent pitcher. To make it worse, he has specifically stated that the price for Halladay will be higher for any team in the AL East, and I don't think that statement was directed towards the Orioles. Any deal would likely include a few of the following: Phil Hughes, Joba Chamberlain, cash considerations, and the Yankees top 3 prospects: catcher Jesus Montero, outfielder Austin Jackson, and top pitching prospect Dellin Betances. Certainly even Ricciardi couldn't even reasonably ask for all of these, but the Yankees would likely have to part with either Joba or Hughes, money, and one of their better prospects. Quite frankly, Joba has been developing really well and would make a good #2 on most teams despite being drafted just 2 years ago. Hughes has been disappointing as a starter, but he has been great in relief and I still have faith that he will eventually become, at the very least, a solid #3 guy. I wouldn't mind the Yanks parting with Betances and/or with Jackson, but only if the Yanks were certain they could sign Halladay to a long-term deal. Which brings us to the last point: the money. Even the Yankees do not have unlimited money, and they have an 09' payroll of more than 200 million dollars, and have a lot of committed money over the next few seasons. Acquiring and signing Halladay means two things: 1. The Yankees will lose many of their best, cheap, young players. 2. The Yankees will be unable to be flexible with their lineup over the next few years.
Price: C-
Overall: C+
Halladay has the talent, that's for sure. However, the Yankees got to first place in the AL East and the second best record in all of baseball without him, making him more of a luxury than a necessity. If they acquire him, the Yankees will lose several of their top young prospects, and are potentially putting the team in a bad situation for the next couple of years that they wouldn't be able to spend their way out of. And that's uncharted waters any Yankees fan doesn't want to see the team in.
Keywords: New York YankeesRoy HalladayTrade rumors 2009
