1. Depth of starters
Both the Sox and the Yanks have 3 great starters (Beckett, Wakefield, and Lester vs. Sabathia, Burnett, and Joba), but the Sox have no other pitchers of quality. Their #4 and #5 starters are Penny(5.02 ERA) and Mr. "I was happy with that start" Smoltz, whose sporting a 6.31 ERA. The Yankees seem to be lacking a strong #5 as well, but they should find some stability with Hughes, Wang, and Mirte all competing for the spot. And Pettitte, the Yanks #4 starter, is head and shoulders better than Smoltz and Penny. His ERA (4.65) is better than that of both Penny's and Smoltz's, and this despite the fact that he pitches in hitter-friendly Yankee Stadium (on the road his ERA is 3.69). The Yankees should easily tee off against Smoltz and Penny, while the Sox hitters would be kept in check by Pettitte.
2. Law of averages
On June 24th, just four weeks ago, the Sox sat atop the AL East, a comfortable 5 games ahead of the Yankees. Youkilis was hitting .313 (down from his .365 average just three weeks prior), Nick Green had come out of nowhere and was hitting .291, and Jason Bay was sporting a .393 OBP (now .375), up from his OBP of .370 last year. At the same time, A-rod was sporting a low .369 OBP (now .403), Teixeira was just a few weeks out of a slump that saw him hitting as low as .191, and Burnett's ERA was .50 higher than it is now. Simply put, many Red Sox players were over-performing, many Yankees players were underperforming, and now the law of averages is catching up to both teams.
3. Injuries
The Yankees are a relatively healthy team. They lost Nady at the start of the season and have gotten to the top of the AL East without him. Wang is also on the DL, but this is probably a blessing, if anything. He clearly has had some mechanical issues and some time off could help him out. The only one of real value on the DL is Marte, a relief pitcher. On the other hand the Red Sox team is starting to have some major wear and tear. Dice-K, like Wang, has been horrendous and has hit the DL. Now Wakefield, the Sox best starter during the first half, has hit the DL, and one can't help but wonder if Ortiz is battling injuries as well. These injuries could cripple the Sox down the stretch.
4. Power
The Sox won the World Series in 2004 and 2006. In 04' Manny hit 43 HR's and Ortiz hit 41. In 06' Manny hit 35 in an injury plagued season while Ortiz hit a whopping 54 HR's. And it seemed that every other player in the lineup could hit with at least a decent amount of power. However the Sox no longer have Manny and Ortiz is on pace for just 20 HR's. Now the Sox lineup contains guys like Jacoby (on pace for 8 HR's) Pedroia (on pace for 7) and a pair of shortstops (Green and Lowrie) who, combined, have only hit 6 HR's in 228 at bats. In 04 the Sox hit 228 HR's in 158 games. This year they are on pace for 187 HR's in 158 games, or 41 less HR's. The Yanks on the other hand, have plenty of power. Arod is a legitimate 50 HR threat, and Teix is capable of slugging 40+. Damon, Matsui, and Swish are all capable of hitting 25 or more. It will be tough for the Sox to make it past the Yanks with only 1 legitimate power hitter.
5. Head to Head
Many of you may laugh, but going 0-8 against the Sox in the first half actually is a good thing for the Yankees. Both the Sox and the Yankees are great teams, no doubt about it (both have the best records in the AL). So the odds of one of them going 0-8 against the other is laughably small, and yet it happened. Normally this should mean that the Yankees should be far out of contention, but yet they are ahead of the Sox by 2 games. Essentially the Sox lost their chance to establish a commanding lead over the Yanks. The odds of them going undefeated against the Yankees in the second half is really small, and now we know that, even if they do, the Yankees can come back from it. The Sox won't go undefeated against the Yanks, meaning they will need to win a very high percentage of their other games (probably something like 65%) if they want to sit atop the AL East.
And with a current post-all-star winning percentage of 17%, I don't see that happening.
Keywords: New York YankeesBoston Red Sox
