3 quarterback sleepers in the 09 fantasy football season

Let's take a look at the top 3 qb sleepers for the 2009 season:

Note: All stats and rankings are based on the following:
20 yards passing=1 point
10 yards rushing= 1 point
Td's= 6 points
Fumble/Int= -2 points


3. David Garrard
08: 3620 passing yards 15 passing td's 13 INT's 322 yards rushing 2 rushing td's

This guy always seems like a perennial sleeper. He finally came out of his shell a little bit last season, passing for 1111 more yards than the previous season, though he did play in 4 more games. Last year he was the 11th best qb, and yet is consistently ranked lower than 15 for the upcoming season. He should be able to crack the top 10 qb's this year given the addition of aging, yet talented, receiver Torry Holt. In addition, Garrard is effective at creating points with his legs, rushing for 322 yards and 2 td's last season. What keeps Garrard from being a top tier qb (besides his lack of receivers), is his lack of passing td's. For a man with 3600+ yards passing, 15 td's is a very small number. Cassel and Pennington passed for nearly identical yardage last season, and they had 21 td's and 19 td's respectively. If Garrard could ever pass for td's like he did in 07' (when he had 18 td's in only 12 starts) and have the health he did in 08', he could easily eclipse 20 passing td's. While I'm not so convinced of this that I will make him my starting qb, Garrard will make a terrific backup with the potential to catapult himself into a starting fantasy gig.

09 Projection: 3450 passing yards 20 td's 13 int's 280 rushing yards 2 rushing td's


2. Shaun Hill
08: 9 games 2046 passing yards 13 td's 8 int's 115 rush yards 2 rush td's

Were it not for the loss of offensive coordinator Mike Martz I would highly reccomend that all fantasy owners do whatever it take to acquire Hill. Even with this, I'm still high on Hill. Over the last two years Hill has thrown for 18 td's and only 9 int's, a very good td:INT ratio. If you project what he did last season in 9 games to 16 games, he would have passed for 3537 yards, passed for 23 td's, thrown 14 int's, rushed for 204 yards, and 3-4 rushing td's. That would give him numbers closest to Matt Cassel, who was the 8th best qb last year. If wonder-boy Michael Crabtree is half as good as people say he is, then he should make Hill a more potent QB. However, as you guessed there are some problems here. Hill averaged 32 passing attempts a start last season, a stat only a few of the league's best qb's surpassed. However, now the 49ers are no longer run by pass-happy Mike Martz, and have publicly stated that they will focus more on the run. However the great thing is that, unlike Garrard whose adp is 158, Hill isn't in the top 218 adp positions posted by mockdraftcentral.com, meaning you can pick him up cheaply, probably within the last 3 rounds of your draft. I am not guaranteeing Hill will be a superb qb this year, or even a great #2 (who knows what the offensive system will be like) but I guarantee he has more upside than almost anyone you would draft with your last 3 picks.

09 Projection: 3350 passing yards 19 passing td's 11 int's, 200 yards rushing, 2 rushing td's

1. Kyle Orton

Let me be loud and clear: Kyle Orton is NOT Rex Grossman. I hear analysts talking about Orton's poor decision making ability, and I wonder if they do not realize when Grossman took the field and when Orton did. Orton, only 26, threw an INT for every 38.75 passing attempts last season. That's better than the 08' performances of Drew Brees, Tony Romo, and Jay Cutler. Pretty good company there. Starting 15 games last year, Orton was ranked the 17th best qb last season and has an adp of 128 this year, making him the 16th qb chosen according to the adp reports. All of this would make sense, were it not for the fact that Orton was traded to the Broncos. He went from the Windy City to a city notorious for its thin air. He went from throwing to a group of special teams returners to throwing to a receiving corp that contains two guys who could easily go over 1,000 yards apiece (Royal had 980 yards receiving last year while Marshall had 1300+). He went from a team that ranked 14th in passing attempts last season to a team that ranked 3rd. You'll have to spend more to get Orton than you will to get Garrard or Hill, but he has the best chances to vault into the top 7 or so qb's. He's by far the riskiest of the 3, but he also offers the most reward. If he doesn't pan out, you basically will have spent a 10th round pick to acquire a pretty good #2 qb. If he does pan out, he will more than likely end up starting for your team, or you will be able to trade him for something you need. For just a tenth round pick I like my odds.

09 Projection: 3650 passing yards 24 td's 15 int's 100 yards rushing 1 rushing td