Last Stand of the Triumvirate - Tim Duncan's Waterloo?

What can you expect if you play the game at its fundamental peak, take the lion’s share of success in your domain and handle it with the gracious respect of a true champion?  If the sports world is any indicator, you can expect a vitriolic cocktail of umbrage, resentment and contempt.  

The New Jersey Devils, New England Patriots and San Antonio Spurs are the current dynasties of their respective sports, with identities woven into tight-knit defensive schemes.  Their longevity stems from a simple approach that enhances their compatibility with free agents, while superior scouting has kept their draft classes productive.  However, the systems these teams implement would be swept off in the current of personnel change, without their leaders there to anchor the culture of winning onto newcomers. 

Martin Brodeur, Tom Brady and Tim Duncan are the categorical leaders of their franchises, single-team pillars withstanding the flood of free agency’s frenzy.  Their illustrious careers have been cornerstones in the fluid rosters built around them.  Their General Managers have followed General Motors, using interchangeable parts without sacrificing their brand name.  This has worked to such an extreme, that the franchises have taken on their stars’ understated demeanors. 

Brady is the only one of the group that has any personality; Duncan sold his for additional basketball IQ, while Brodeur’s charisma is taxed by the costly translation from French.  As a result, excitement craving fans find themselves rooting against the incumbent champions and logic itself, pulling for such unlikely teams as the Anaheim Ducks, Carolina Panthers and Cleveland Cavaliers.  The only difference now, is that the field seems to be closing the gap.

Much like Spygate in the NFL, Sean Avery of the New York Rangers has crashed onto the scene, disrupted the success of the perennial favorites and provided simultaneous motivation and exasperation.  Both Avery and Spygate have a chance to be remembered for dismantling a dynasty, but will do so only by coincidence.  The window for the New Jersey Devils closes not because of the arrival of Avery, but rather the departure of Ken Daneyko and Scott Stevens.  Only the presence of Brodeur has held the Devils in contention for this long, but his contract expires after next season.  The Patriots can only expect to regress after a perfect 2007, and their aging linebacker corps is a likely starting point. 

Solid blueliners are the linebackers of the hockey world, and Brodeur’s numbers suffered early in the season as his team floundered defensively.  Similarly, Brady can (perhaps literally) score on every possession, but any team that can’t stop the run can’t ensure possession when the clock winds to zero.  The San Antonio Spurs dilemma is unique; the team has actually improved this year, fitting Kurt Thomas seamlessly into their system.  However, this upgrade fails to address their division rivals, who no longer play to the strengths of their big man in the middle. 

The meteoric rise of Chris Paul may be accomplished primarily at the Spurs expense.  Through two games, they’ve been baffled by the riddle of CP3.  The Spurs have simply lacked the production they need and expect from their top three on the road.  Coach Popovich sensed the need for urgent change, reserving Duncan, Parker and Ginobili to start the 4^th quarter in Game 2.  After drawing even at home, they seem resigned to the barrage from Chris Paul, moving Bruce Bowen to bottle up Peja Stojakovic.  The result was a rampage from David West, who added 5 blocks and assists to career playoff highs in points (38) and rebounds (14).  The Spurs have looked great at home in the year’s postseason, but the dam is sagging on the road.  Even if they march to New Orleans and escape unscathed from the Hornets nest, they’ll face the same problem on the road with Kobe Bryant running the perimeter, while Duncan contends down low with Pau Gasol and Lamar Odom.

Of course, playoff losses have never halted their success before, but the arms race in the Western Conference has destabilized the Spurs’ hold on home court advantage.  Powerhouses have sprouted up all around them and there’s no longer the guarantee that their trademark push in the springtime run will result in summer success.  Like the other teams that have enjoyed success under the blueprint of stout defense and interchangeability, the franchise itself must transition from odds-on favorites to the tempered expectations of a contender.